Schwartzel finds himself alone in front at Doral

Golf Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Africa's Charl Schwartzel posted a brilliant, bogey-free, five-under 67 on Thursday to take the first-round lead of the WGC-CA Championship.

Schwartzel braved tough, windy conditions at the TPC Blue Monster at Doral for the first-round advantage, when every other leader got tripped up by the famed Blue Monster 18th hole.

First up was Robert Allenby, who reached eight-under, but bogeyed three in a row from the 15th. At the last, Allenby found a greenside bunker and nearly blasted his ball into the water. He couldn't get up and down for par and walked off with a 68.

"When you come from eight-under and you finish up at four (under par), you look at it and go, wow, you really messed that up," Allenby said. "They are not easy holes."

Next was Vijay Singh.

The Fijian was alone in the lead at six-under par after a great approach at 17 left him a tap-in birdie. Singh drove into the water at 18, took a drop, missed the green with his third, chipped to 16 feet, missed the bogey putt and settled for a double-bogey and a round of 68.

Francesco Molinari was tied for first at five-under, but, like Singh, drove into the drink on the left. He missed the green with his third and landed his fourth 16 feet from the hole. Molinari's putt stayed above ground and he made double for a round of 69.

The final leader who fell victim to the Blue Monster was Ernie Els.

The three-time major winner was five-under, but avoided the water off the tee, only to land in the right rough by the trees. Els' second trickled into the water and after a drop, he pitched to five feet and made the putt for bogey.

"You can't afford to get it anywhere near the water," acknowledged Els. "It's a very, very difficult hole."

To tally it up, Allenby, Els and Singh are tied for second at four-under 68. Molinari heads a group of John Senden, Soren Hansen, J.B. Holmes, Paul Casey and FedEx Cup leader Dustin Johnson in a share of fifth at three-under 69.

That left Schwartzel the sole survivor.

Perhaps he was aided by the fact that he started on the 10th tee Thursday and finished his round at the par-three ninth.

"There's so much trouble out there, especially with this type of wind." said Schwartzel. "The big achievement for me today was not making any bogeys. That kept the scorecard very clean."

Schwartzel parred the 10th on Thursday, then rattled off back-to-back birdies at 11 and 12. He parred his last six on his first nine, including the Blue Monster, then caught fire after he made the turn.

The South African birdied the par-five first, then holed a long birdie putt from off the green at No. 2. Schwartzel parred three, then returned with a birdie at No. 4.

He missed the green at his last, the par-three ninth, but hit a great chip to three feet. Schwartzel made the putt to save par and stay atop the leaderboard, a familiar place for the 25-year-old.

Schwartzel earned back-to-back victories earlier this year at the Africa Open and Joburg Open on the European Tour. He tied for ninth at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship and is third on that tour's Race to Dubai.

"I've started off the year so good and I couldn't have asked for any better," said Schwartzel. "I've got a lot of confidence with the way I'm playing right now, I'm striking the ball well, and you know, I'm also making a few putts, which is all adds up to good golf.

"I played a lot of good rounds in my career, and yeah, this one rates right up there."

Defending champion Phil Mickelson carded a one-under 71 and is part of a group tied for 17th place.

"I'm happy with 71," said Mickelson. "I know it's not in contention yet, but my goal was to shoot something as solid as I did today, and improve on it each day."

NOTES: Due to Friday afternoon rain on the horizon, officials moved up second- round tee times. The first group off on Friday will now be at 8:00 a.m. (ET) with times running through 9:55 a.m. The groups will remain the same with threesomes going off the first and 10th tees...The only two players qualified for this week that aren't in the field are Tiger Woods, who is still on an indefinite leave, and Ryo Ishikawa, who is graduating from high school in Japan...This is the second WGC event of the year. Ian Poulter won the WGC- Accenture Match Play Championship and had an even-par 72 on Thursday.

Skybppk Golf Betting News

<< Raiders cut ties with DT Warren
Alameda, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Raiders released defensive tackle Gerard Warren on Thursday. The Raiders acquired Warren from the Broncos prior to the 2007 season, but the 6-foot-4, 330-pounder registered just 97 tackles and 10

<< Bears re-sign S Bullocks
Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bears signed safety Josh Bullocks to a one-year tender offer on Thursday. The 40th pick by New Orleans in the 2005 draft, Bullocks has recorded 327 tackles, six interceptions, 28 p

<< Western Athletic Conference Tournament Recaps
Reno, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tai Wesley, one of three players to score 18 points for Utah State, collected 10 rebounds as the Aggies defeated Boise State, 84-60, in the quarterfinals of the Western Athletic Conference Tournam

<< Bills re-sign TE Klopfenstein
Orchard Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Buffalo Bills re-signed tight end Joe Klopfenstein on Thursday. The Bills signed Klopfenstein two different times last season, and he played in only one game, the season finale, making one catch for

<< New Mexico wins 15th straight, advances in MWC tourney
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darington Hobson erupted for 28 points and 15 rebounds, carrying No. 8 New Mexico to a hard-fought 75-69 victory over Air Force in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Dairese Gar

Clark found guilty in murder of Broncos CB Darrent Williams >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Willie Clark has been found guilty in the fatal drive-by shooting of Denver Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams. A Denver jury convicted Clark of the crime Thursday. He was convicted on all 21 charges, inclu

Ganassi, Penske drivers set to battle for 2010 IndyCar title >>
Sao Paulo, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The IndyCar Series -- with new title sponsor IZOD -- kicks off its 2010 season this weekend in Brazil, marking the first time the series competes in a South American country. With 17 races on the schedule, t

Broncos re-sign DL Smith; cut LB Davis >>
Englewood, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Broncos on Thursday re-signed defensive lineman Le Kevin Smith and released linebacker Andra Davis. Smith was acquired by Denver in a trade with New England last August. He played in 13

Big buzz on Amen Corner: Woods reportedly to return at Masters >>
Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Masters truly will be a tradition unlike any other this April, as several media outlets have reported that Tiger Woods will make his highly anticipated return to competitive golf at the season's first m

Report: Calhoun, Huskies close to contract extension >>
New Haven, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Connecticut and men's head basketball coach Jim Calhoun are reportedly close to a contract extension. The New Haven Register, citing a source with knowledge of the situation, stated T

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.

Brandon Roy Favorite to Win 2007 NBA Rookie of the Year

Portland TrailBlazer’s guard, Brandon Roy, is MySportsbook.com’s overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.

With 30 or so games left in the regular season, Roy isn’t a lock for the award by any means. Other rookies are putting together some pretty impressive campaigns and a few could give Roy a run for the award with increased playing time. Heading the list is first pick, Andrea Bargnani of the Toronto Raptors. Even though he has started only two games all season, Bargnani is averaging 10.3 PPPG while shooting 35% from deep.

Randy Foye of the Minnesota Timberwolves could be set to give Roy the best competition NBA Rookie of the Year betting lines. With the benching of Mike James, Foye looks like he could be the starter in the T-Wolves backcourt for the rest of the season. So far, Foye has averaged 9 PPG and 2.4 assists in just under 21 minutes per game. With his new role of starter, Foye’s numbers will definitely increase. In his first game as the new starting guard this past Sunday, Foye had 10 points; five rebounds and 8 assists. More importantly, he logged 34 minutes of playing time; his third highest run of the season.

Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.

Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to bet on the NBA. With the regular season about to hit the homestretch, it is important to point out that MySportsbook.com has the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.