Cubs resume impressive homestand vs. D'backs

Baseball Betting Lines

07/20/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs are enjoying a very successful homestand and will hope that trend continues this afternoon with the opener of a three- game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs swept a three-game set with Houston to begin the 10-game residency before taking three of four against San Francisco, including Thursday's 9-8 victory that was overshadowed by two home runs from Barry Bonds.

Ted Lilly (10-4) served up Bonds' first homer, but got the win behind five innings of three-run ball. Aramis Ramirez provided the offensive spark in the absence of Derrek Lee, going 3-for-5 with two RBI and a pair of runs scored.

Alfonso Soriano also had three hits, scored twice and knocked in a run, while Jacque Jones finished 4-for-5.

The Cubs did suffer a set of injuries in the game, though. Daryle Ward, subbing for Lee at first base, was forced out of the game in the second inning due to a right calf strain, while Cliff Floyd left in the third with a sore neck after a collision at first.

Ward's injury may be the most concerning due to the fact Lee is currently serving a five-game suspension -- he will sit out his third game today -- and is not eligible to return until Tuesday. Mark DeRosa came off the bench to spell Ward yesterday.

Meanwhile, closer Ryan Dempster could be activated from the disabled list today for Chicago, which is 3 1/2 games behind first-place Milwaukee in the NL Central.

Jason Marquis will try to shake off two recent horrid outings when he starts today for the Cubs. The right-hander has allowed six runs and eight hits in each of his last two starts while pitching just a total of 8 2/3 innings. Marquis began the season 5-1 through seven starts, but is now just 6-5 with a 4.03 earned run average.

Despite a 2.84 ERA in seven career outings (six starts) against the Diamondbacks, Marquis is just 1-3 against them. That lone victory came on May 13 of last season behind seven innings of one-run ball and was the first of five straight winning starts for Marquis.

Chicago wasn't able to gain any ground on the Brewers despite their winning ways against the Giants, and the club has the Diamondbacks to blame for that. Arizona comes into this series having just lost three of four to Milwaukee, including a 10-1 rout at the hands of the Brew Crew on Thursday.

Livan Hernandez (5-6) was ripped for eight hits and six runs -- five earned -- in 5 1/3 innings, while Conor Jackson's solo homer provided the only run for Arizona.

Overall, the club has lost 12 of its last 16 games and is currently 4 1/2 games behind San Diego for the top spot in the NL West.

Brandon Webb will toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks today and is aiming for his first win in four starts. Webb is 0-2 over his last three outings, including a loss on Sunday against the Padres.

The right-hander allowed four runs (three earned), but was also battered for 11 hits over 5 2/3 innings. The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner did strikeout 10 batters, however, to just two walks.

The 28-year-old Webb is pitching to a 4.40 ERA over his last five starts and has fallen to 8-7 on the season with a 3.42 ERA.

He has pitched well historically against the Cubs in his career, going 4-0 with a 2.52 earned run average over six starts against them.

Arizona has also had recent success against Chicago. It won four of six against the Cubs in 2006, and is 13-6 against them since the start of the 2004 season.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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