Bank On It: Butler's three at the buzzer lifts WVU over Cincy

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - De'Sean Butler's closely-contested three- pointer off the glass as time expired advanced his seventh-ranked Mountaineers and ended Cincinnati's improbable march through the conference gauntlet, as West Virginia survived an upset-riddled quarterfinal round at the Big East Tournament, 54-51.

The game appeared destined for overtime after going through a wild chain of events in the final 6.4 seconds. First, Dion Dixon lost control of the basketball along the left sideline, and the ball eventually caromed off his knee and out of bounds. The Mountaineers (25-6) took advantage, with Butler catching the ball out near the top of the arc, rising and firing over Cincinnati freshman star Lance Stephenson for the game-winner.

Several Bearcats (18-15) fell to the floor at the horn. Stephenson had the best look at Butler's basket that downed his club despite his 19-point, seven- rebound stat line.

Kevin Jones scored 17, Butler added 15 and Devin Ebanks totaled 10 for the Mountaineers, who are the only top-four seed left at Madison Square Garden. They will face Notre Dame in the second semifinal, with Georgetown and Marquette taking the court first on Friday.

A struggle marked in equal parts solid defense and offensive ineptitude shifted over the final three-plus minutes. Trailing 47-42, Cincinnati turned to its season-long shaky perimeter shooting to get back into the game. First, Deonta Vaughn's trey cut the deficit to two then Darnell Wilks crashed the offensive glass for a game-tying putback with just under three minutes to play.

Jones drained a jumper then Stephenson made 1-of-2 from the foul line. Jones was in the right place at the right time moments later, finding a scoring chance off a loose-ball scrum for a 51-48 lead with 1:07 to play. Again, the Bearcats stepped out beyond their comfort zone, as Stephenson -- a 27-percent three-point shooter on the conference's worst, and the nation's 277th-best, long-distance shooting team, -- buried a right-wing trey for a 51-51 stalemate with 42.1 seconds remaining.

An Ebanks missed opportunity resulted in a dead ball with just 6.4 seconds left. After a Cincinnati timeout, Dixon lost control of a left-handed dribble for a turnover. West Virginia then found Butler out top, he worked his way to the top of the arc, and connected on a difficult shot over Stephenson's outstretched arms.

After holding a 26-23 lead at the half, the Mountaineers first stretched their lead to seven at 30-23 then to eight at 33-25 on a free throw by Cam Thoroughman. The margin grew to nine at 45-36 on a Jones layup with just under seven minutes to go, but the Bearcats refused to go away, scoring seven in a row moments later for a 47-45 deficit.

Game Notes

West Virginia won both meetings this season, including a 74-68 decision back on February 27th...Cincinnati, however, still leads the all-time series, 10-8...Vaughn totaled nine points for the Bearcats...Cincinnati made 5-of-14 threes, but shot just 33.3 percent from the floor...One night after dominating Louisville on the glass, both teams got their fair share of offensive boards with the Bearcats grabbing 14 and West Virginia 17.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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